White Paper · National Strategy · East Asia · October 2026
Long-Horizon State Capacity and an East Asian Regional Community
A Strategy White Paper on Governance Continuity, Population and Territorial Planning, and Regional Economic Strategy in an Era of Reconfigured Globalization
长期主义国家能力与东亚区域共同体：全球化重构期的治理连续性、人口国土布局与区域经济战略白皮书
About this white paper
As the reconfiguration of globalization, population ageing and geopolitical competition all accelerate, can states still set and sustain strategies that run for two or three decades? This white paper starts from leadership turnover in three parliamentary democracies — the United Kingdom, Australia and Japan — examines Australia’s population and territorial planning, turns to the shift in East Asia’s development model and the impasse in China–Japan–South Korea cooperation, and closes with policy recommendations, scenarios and indicators to watch.
Five key judgments
- Globalization is being reconfigured, not ended. The average effective US tariff rate is at its highest since 1943, yet world merchandise trade is still forecast to grow 3.9% in 2026, with Asian imports growing fastest; regional markets matter far more than before.
- Strategic continuity is a core component of state capacity. Seven UK prime ministers in ten years; four sitting Australian prime ministers removed by their own parties in 2007–2018; ten Japanese prime ministers in twenty years. Frequent turnover is associated with slower economic and productivity growth.
- The root is not parliamentary government as such but the low cost of removing a leader and the absence of long-term strategic institutions insulated from the electoral cycle — Germany’s constructive vote of no confidence and Australia’s 2013/2018 party-rule changes show stability can be designed in.
- East Asia’s export-led model is reaching its external limits. Exports are about 46% of GDP in South Korea and 21–22% in Japan and China; the three economies together hold about 22% of world GDP and 1.58 billion people, with deep complementarities.
- The binding constraint on East Asian cooperation is political trust, not economic arithmetic. Only four trilateral summits since 2012, a stalled FTA, and negative mutual views near 90% — European experience shows economic ties need shared historical understanding, institutionalized youth exchange and commitments that outlast elections.
Recommendations
Four groups of recommendations: raise the threshold for removing a head of government and create statutory long-term strategy bodies; tie population policy to industrial anchors and infrastructure; advance East Asian cooperation in three phases — stabilization (2026–2028), functional cooperation (2028–2035) and institution-building (2035–2050); and rebuild regional trust on the principles of acknowledging facts, not instrumentalizing history, and looking to the future.
Contents
- The strategic environment: globalization reconfigured
- Strategic continuity: leadership turnover in parliamentary systems
- Population and territory: Australia’s spatial pattern
- The turning point in East Asia’s development model
- The trust deficit: history, public opinion and security structures
- European experience: what transfers and what does not
- Strategic recommendations
- Scenarios and indicators
内容简介
在全球化重构、人口老龄化和地缘竞争同时加速的时代，国家能否制定并持续执行以二三十年为周期的战略？本白皮书以英国、澳大利亚、日本三个议会内阁制国家的领导人更替为观察起点，考察澳大利亚的人口与国土布局，再转向中日韩三国的发展模式转折与区域合作困局，最后提出政策建议和观测指标。五项核心判断：全球化正在重构而非终结；战略连续性已成为国家能力的核心变量；问题的根源在于撤换领导人的成本过低、缺少不随选举周期摇摆的长期战略机构；东亚外向型发展模式已接近外部条件的极限；东亚区域合作的主要约束是政治信任，而不是经济算术。白皮书提出四组建议，并以“稳定止损、功能合作、制度建设”三个阶段（2026–2050）推进东亚区域合作。
Citation
Yin, T. (2026). Long-Horizon State Capacity and an East Asian Regional Community: A Strategy White Paper on Governance Continuity, Population and Territorial Planning, and Regional Economic Strategy in an Era of Reconfigured Globalization. White Paper. Auburn, AL: InsightBridge Global LLC. https://insightbridge.global/publications/long-horizon-state-capacity-east-asian-regional-community