Scorecard · U.S. Midterms 2026 · 5 November 2026 · Preliminary; counting not complete
Scoring the 2026 U.S. Midterm Forecast
Direction, Magnitude and Lessons for Method
2026 年美国中期选举预测成绩单：方向判断、幅度偏差与方法检讨
Independence statement: This is an independent, third-party analysis. It takes no political, partisan, ideological or national position. It assesses the accuracy of a forecast, not the merits of any party or candidate.
About this scorecard
This study published “The 2026 U.S. Midterms and the Road to 2028” on 14 October 2026 and revised it on 23, 24 and 31 October. The House district model was frozen on 30 October and the state-level Senate model registered on 31 October, together with scoring rules written before the election. This scorecard applies those rules and records what was right and what was wrong. Every directional call was right; the margin was underestimated.
Summary
| Item | Forecast (final edition, 31 Oct) | Preliminary outcome | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| House control | Democratic majority, about 90% | Democratic majority | Strong |
| Senate control | Democratic control, about 65% | Democratic control | Strong |
| Combined outcome | Democratic sweep, about 61%, most likely scenario | Democratic sweep | Strong |
| Main drivers | Cost of living; low presidential approval | Confirmed by exit polls | Strong |
| Senate state calls | 10 of 12 decided states correct | 54 seats secured, leading in two more | Good |
| Confidence | Below prediction markets in every edition | Outcome more one-sided than forecast | Fair |
| House seats | Author's central range 222–238 | Preliminary about 255–258 | Weak |
| Transparency | Models and scoring rules frozen before the vote | Timestamped, version-controlled | Strong |
内容简介
按选前登记的评分规则，对《2026 年美国中期选举与通往 2028 之路》终版做初步评估。方向判断全部正确：民主党赢得众议院多数（预测约 90%）、控制参议院（约 65%），两院全胜是最可能情景（约 61%）；生活成本与总统支持率两个驱动因素得到出口民调印证；已出结果的 12 个参议院州判对 10 个。偏差在幅度：作者众议院中心区间 222–238 席，初步结果约 255–258 席；每一版的概率都低于预测市场。殷彤博士撰写。
Citation
Yin, T. (2026). Scoring the 2026 U.S. Midterm Forecast: Direction, Magnitude and Lessons for Method. Scorecard. Auburn, AL: InsightBridge Global LLC. https://insightbridge.global/publications/us-midterms-2026-forecast-scorecard