Theoretical Essay · Philosophy of Knowledge · 17 October 2026
The Simulacrum of Metrics and the Retreat of Reality
On the Idealist Turn in Knowledge Production, Global Cognitive Decline, and the Return to Empirical Realism
指标的拟像与现实的退场——论知识生产体制的唯心主义转向、全球认知退化与经验实在论的回归
About this essay
Why do sophisticated systems of measurement keep failing at the moments that matter most? In this theoretical essay Dr Tong Yin argues that the failure is epistemological rather than technical: modern institutions increasingly treat the internal completeness of a symbolic system — coherent logic, elegant models, attained metrics — as a substitute for testing claims against external reality. Drawing on Goodhart's law and the image of the map devouring the territory, the essay calls this pattern the simulacrum of metrics, traces its lineage from the Song–Ming divergence between “investigating things” and “cultivating the mind” through mid-twentieth-century voluntarism and the 1978 return to practice as the criterion of truth, and follows it into today's credentialism, the industrialisation of academic output, global rankings and the mathematisation of the social sciences. It sets these against parallel developments in the West, reads the recent synchronised “from the virtual to the real” policy turn in China and the United States as both a reaction to the pathology and a possible reproduction of it, and closes with institutional and individual paths back to empirical realism.
An interpretive, theoretical essay rather than an empirical study; the historical lineage it proposes is an explanatory framework, not a single-cause account. The essay states the limits of its own argument in Section 10.4.
Abstract
This essay examines a recurring structural pathology in modern systems of knowledge production and governance: the substitution of internal completeness within a symbolic system (logical coherence, model elegance, metric attainment) for the investigation and testing of external reality. It first distinguishes "logical correctness" from "factual correctness" and, drawing on Goodhart's law and the image of the map devouring the territory, explains how metrics degenerate into simulacra. It then traces the epistemological divergence between "investigating things" and "cultivating the mind" in Song–Ming Chinese philosophy; the drift of the School of Mind in the late Ming; the institutional severance of knowledge from production under the scholar–peasant–artisan–merchant hierarchy; and the twentieth-century conversion of the School of Mind into an instrument of rule. It proceeds to the extreme voluntarism of the mid-twentieth century, the 1978 correction centred on practice as the criterion of truth, and the pendulum-like over-correction that replaced competence with credentials. At the contemporary level, the essay analyses the new scholar–artisan–merchant hierarchy produced by credentialism, the industrialisation of academic output and the global ranking compact that sustains it, the mathematisation of the social sciences and their record of predictive failure, and the twin degenerations of contemporary philosophy into instrumentalisation and formalisation. It extends the analysis to the West—financialisation, the inward turn of the humanities, and voluntarism in policy—as a parallel evolutionary path, and reads the near-simultaneous "from the virtual to the real" policy shifts in China and the United States as both a reaction to the pathology and a potential reproduction of its metric logic. Finally, it explains why such systems resist self-correction and proposes institutional and individual paths back to an empirical realism grounded in "seeking truth from facts" and "investigating things to extend knowledge," while stating the limits of its own argument.
Keywords: metric alienation; empirical realism; voluntarism; credentialism; research evaluation; econometrics; cognitive decline; gewu zhizhi
Contents
- 1. Introduction: The Failure of the Calculating Regime
- 2. Conceptual Framework: Symbolic Completeness, Real-World Validity, and the Simulacrum of Metrics
- 3. Historical Lineage I: Investigating Things versus Cultivating the Mind
- 4. Historical Lineage II: The Extremes of Voluntarism and the Pendulum of Correction
- 5. Contemporary Form I: Credentialism and the New Scholar–Artisan–Merchant Hierarchy
- 6. Contemporary Form II: The Industrialisation of Academic Output and the Ranking Compact
- 7. Contemporary Form III: The Mathematisation of the Social Sciences and the Problem of "Mathiness"
- 8. The Global Dimension: The West's Parallel Evolution and the Synchronised Turn "From the Virtual to the Real"
- 9. Why Systems Resist Self-Correction
- 10. Conclusion: Returning to Knowledge That Reality Can Test
导读
为什么越来越精密的计算与考核体系，偏偏在最关键的时刻失灵？殷彤博士在这篇理论文章中指出，问题不在执行层面的技术失误，而在认识论层面：现代知识生产与治理体制越来越习惯以符号系统内部的完备性——逻辑自洽、模型精美、指标达标——取代对外部现实的探索与检验。文章借助古德哈特定律与“地图吞噬领土”的意象，将这一病理概括为“指标的拟像”；从宋明哲学“格物”与“修心”的认识论分歧谈起，经二十世纪中叶唯意志论的极端化与 1978 年以实践为检验真理标准的矫正，一直追踪到当代的凭证主义、学术生产的工业化与排名共谋、社会科学的数学化；并将其与西方的平行演化相对照，把中美近年同步出现的“去虚向实”解读为对这一病理的反应、也可能是对其指标逻辑的复制。文章最后提出回归经验实在论的制度与个人路径。
本文是解释性的理论文章，而非实证研究；文中的历史谱系是一种解释框架，而非单因论断。本文论证的边界与局限见第 10.4 节。
摘要
本文讨论近现代以来全球知识生产与社会治理体制中反复出现的一种结构性病理：以符号系统内部的完备性（逻辑自洽、模型精美、指标达标）取代对外部客观现实的探索与检验。文章首先建立"逻辑正确"与"事实正确"的区分，并借助古德哈特定律、"地图吞噬领土"等概念说明指标如何异化为拟像；继而回溯中国宋明哲学中"格物"与"修心"的认识论分歧，考察心学在晚明的流变、"士农工商"结构对知识与生产的制度性割裂，以及心学在二十世纪被改造为治理工具的案例；进而梳理唯意志论在二十世纪中叶的极端化、1978年以实践标准为核心的矫正，以及此后以凭证替代能力的钟摆式过度矫正。在当代层面，文章分析了凭证主义所形成的新"士农工商"结构、学术生产的工业化与全球排名共谋机制、社会科学的数学化及其预测失败记录，并指出当代哲学在工具化与形式化两端的退化。文章进一步将视野扩展至西方：金融化、人文学科的内向化与政策层面的唯意志论，构成了与东方"指标官僚主义"平行的演化路径；中美两国近年同步出现的"去虚向实"政策调整，既是对这一病理的反应，也可能复制同样的指标逻辑。文章最后讨论体制难以自我纠正的机制，并提出回归以"实事求是"与"格物致知"为核心的经验实在论的制度与个人路径，同时说明本文论证的边界与局限。
关键词： 指标异化；经验实在论；唯意志论；凭证主义；学术评价；计量经济学；认知退化；格物致知
目录
- 引言：精密计算体制的失灵与问题的提出
- 概念框架：符号完备性、现实有效性与"指标的拟像"
- 历史谱系（一）：格物与修心——宋明认识论分歧及其治理后果
- 历史谱系（二）：唯意志论的极端化与钟摆式矫正
- 当代形态（一）：凭证主义与新"士农工商"
- 当代形态（二）：学术生产的工业化与排名共谋
- 当代形态（三）：社会科学的数学化与"数学性"问题
- 全球维度：西方的平行演化与中美同步的"去虚向实"
- 体制为何难以自我纠正
- 结论：回到可被现实检验的知识
Citation
Yin, T. (2026). The Simulacrum of Metrics and the Retreat of Reality: On the Idealist Turn in Knowledge Production, Global Cognitive Decline, and the Return to Empirical Realism. Theoretical essay. Auburn, AL: InsightBridge Global LLC. https://insightbridge.global/publications/simulacrum-of-metrics